Expat Wealth: Why the Stock Market's Wild Ride Is Your Best Ticket to Financial Freedom

You are the brave wandering soul who packed their bags, moved across borders, learned new metro systems, found supermarkets that sell decent butter, and somehow you still show up to work on a Monday morning bright eyed and bushy tailed.

So when you’re living abroad, investing can feel like that “I’ll deal with it later” job that keeps getting shoved under the bed. You know it’s there, you know you should face it, but life is mad, visas expire and the brunch must go on.

And then something like covid hits, we're all made redundant, the stock market throws a tantrum and suddenly investing feels like a terrifying rollercoaster you never agreed to ride in the first place.

So let me tell you a secret that isn’t really a secret at all. The stock market has been behaving like this for more than four centuries. What feels like chaos today is actually a pattern that has repeated itself again and again. And buried in that pattern is the easiest path to long term wealth that ordinary people like us have ever had access to.

Let’s go on a little time travel adventure.

A Quick Trip Back in Time

Picture Amsterdam in 1602. Canals. Ships. Merchant traders with a wooden leg. This was the birth of the first official stock exchange after the Dutch East India Company realised they needed a way to raise money for massive trade expeditions. So they sold shares in their voyages. People could invest, share the risk and share the rewards.

It was revolutionary.

Fast forward through history and you’ll see the beats of the same drum.

• 1602: Amsterdam Stock Exchange opens
• 1792: The NYSE (New York Srock Exchange) is formed under a literal tree
• 1929: The Great Depression knocks the world sideways
• 2000: The Dot-com bubble bursts creating panic among masses
• 2008: The financial crisis reshapes everything
• 2020: A global pandemic drops the market then sends it flying back up

Every single time the pattern holds the same cycle... Fear. Fall. Reset. Recovery. Growth.
And here’s what the "big brains" at Goldman Sachs noticed when they studied market cycles back to the 1800s. Bull markets, the good times, tend to last much longer than the downturns. They are the reason the long term trend of the market keeps climbing.

Which brings us to the heart of it.

So What Exactly Is a Market Cycle?

Think of it like seasons of the weather. They always come around, even if the weather feels extreme in the moment. There are four main stages.

1. Accumulation

This is when prices are low and everyone is doom scrolling. The smart long term investors quietly start buying. It’s like walking into a shop during an unexpected sale and thinking “nobody else is here and everything is half price… am I missing something?”

2. Uptrend

Confidence returns, markets climb, portfolios look steady and, healthy. This is when most people suddenly get interested in investing again.

3. Distribution

Prices peak. The early birds begin selling and taking their profits, the latecomers rush in because of FOMO and the news of all the latest new shiny investments with massive returns is landing in their social media feeds.

4. Downtrend

A correction. A crash. A bear market. The headlines get dramatic, but this is just the next reset that sets up the next accumulation phase.

This is why long-term investors stay calm. They know the rhythm, they know the market isn’t gone bust. It's the cycle starting all over again.

A study conducted by Dalbur states "Historically, the Average Investor has failed to realize the long-term benefits of asset ownership because they do not stay invested in any given investment for a long enough period of time".

The Expat Advantage

If anyone understands long term thinking, it’s you. You moved your life abroad. You sacrificed the comfort and security of home for opportunity. You made hard decisions for a better version of yourself.

Investing works the same way. The scary dips you see on the news are just tiny blips when you zoom out. The real magic happens across decades, not days.

Deutsche Bank analysed returns going back to the 1800s and found there has never been a 20 year period where the S&P 500 delivered a negative return once adjusted for inflation. Not once. Even through wars, pandemics, banking failures, bubbles and whatever else us humans managed to mess up.

The only investors who consistently lose are the ones who try to be heroes, who chase hot trends, and fast gains. Their the ones who jump in and out of the market trying to catch the perfect moment. Dalbar’s annual research shows that the average investor underperforms the actual market because emotions hijack their decisions.

But you are not going to be that investor. You’re an expat, you understand patience, you understand consistency, you understand planning for the long game.

Your Simple Expat Investment Plan

No need to overcomplicate this.

1. Start Now

Even small amounts matter. Time is your best friend.

2. Think in Decades

Your money plan is for the future you want. The older, wiser, sun kissed version of you who deserves a nice life.

3. Diversify

A globally diversified index fund quietly spreads your money across hundreds of companies. It’s the modern version of the old Amsterdam exchange. Lots of voyages, shared risk and shared reward.

4. Ignore the Drama

Crashes are normal. Recoveries are normal. Staying invested and consistently adding to your portfolio is the move to make.

The Bigger Picture

The history of the stock market isn’t as scary as you might have thought. It’s actually a love letter to human progress. It’s a 400 year reminder that despite the bumps, and the chaos over the centuries innovation keeps moving, companies keep growing, people keep building.

And when you invest consistently, you get to participate in that growth.

Your expat life is already a bold decision. Let your money strategy match the courage you’re already living with.

Start simple. Stay steady. Trust the cycle.

Your older and wiser self is somewhere smiling already (probably with an aperol spritz in hand off the coast of Italy somewhere).

If this hit home and you’re sitting there thinking “Right… it’s time I finally get a plan,” then come join the crew.

I send a weekly newsletter that helps expats build calm, confident money habits. And when you join, you’ll get my free Starter Plan e-book so you can finally map out your own long-term investing strategy.

Get the Starter Plan here → Join the Wednesday Wisdom Newsletter (check junk mail)

Sources and Extra Reading:

University of Amsterdam / L. O. Petram - “The World’s First Stock Exchange: How the Amsterdam market for Dutch East India Company shares became a modern securities market, 1602-1700” - deep dive into the origins of the first share trading & stock exchange.

DALBAR Inc. “Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behaviour (QAIB)” - their 2023 study shows average investors underperform and behavioural biases costs people their returns.

Goldman Sachs “The Anatomy of a Bull Market / Equity Bear Market” - A detailed look at how bull and bear markets form, the common triggers behind cycle shifts and why long term investors benefit most.